Middle East Spiraling Out of Control?

The conflict between Israel and Palestine has extended to Lebanon, and threatens to draw in Syria and possibly Iran. Currently, Israel has blockaded Lebanon by sea and bombed the Beirut airport closing it. Missile attacks from Lebanon, possibly from Hezbollah, have hit Haifa. Iran has issued supporting statements for Palestine, as has Syria. The U.S. has said that it supports Israel's right to defend itself. This is a situation that could literally explode at any time.

The situation is bad and getting worse - seeomingly by the moment. Israel has already pointed the finger of blame at Iran and Syria, and there are rumors, that the Israeli soldiers held by Hezbollah (Eldad Regev, 26, from Kiryat Motzkin, and Ehud Goldwasser, 31, from Nahariya (DebkaFiles)) might be moved to Iran. Whether there is any substance to this rumor or not, it could be used to justify extending the conflict to Iran.

The U.S. is apparently tring to stay out of the way, and moved a Naval tugboat out of the Port of Haifa. There are numerous U.S. citizens in Lebanon, and if the situation continues to escalate, they may need to be evacuated. However, it is hard to believe that the U.S. would militarily stand by if the situation escalates much further. This is particularly true if Iran is sucked into conflict. Israel has long threatened a preemptive attack on Iran. In fact, there has been an ongoing threat over the last six months that Israel would do exactly that. Given the nuclear non-talks with Iran at this point, this could be catastrophic. The deployment of U.S. troops in Iraq and the surrounding area make a potential "accidental" target.

The Isreali actions against Lebanon are purportedly aimed at the Shi'ite Hezbollah organzation. However, Israel is clear that they do not distinguish between the government of Lebanon and Hezbollah, and refuse to negotiate with "terrorists." In this case that means the refuse to negotiate with the government of Lebanon. Likewise, they have issued the same statement in relationship to the government of Palestine, arguing that Hamas and the Palestinian government is the same organization. It is not a far stretch to turn this into the Shi'ite - Israeli conflict with Israel labeling all the governments as "terrorist" organizations.

Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation in Gaza is deteriorating rapidly. Between the bombing and missile strikes, and the destruction of basic infrastructure, even water supplies are have been significantly undermined. The same is likely to happen in Lebanon as Israel's blockades and strikes on bridges and infrastructure, are cutting off access to Haifa. Current reports are that Israel has fired "hundreds" of missiles into Lebanon.

Oil prices are rapidly escalating under the events in the Middle East, and renewed conflict in Niger. Iran could also play the oil card as a negotiation point in the escalating conflict.

We are looking at a situation where Israeli actions could rapidly escalate into a "regional" conflict. However, this is already a "region" on the knife's edge, and the events there have global implications. At this point, Israel is effectively ruling out any knid of a negotiated settlement - instead apparently demanding total capitulation. The U.S. has already placed itself as above negotiations, which weakens its voice in moderating the events in the region. At this point, there seems no direction but escalation of military action and reach. When one rules out dealing with the recognized governments of nations, there is not much a way forward.

July 14, 2006
7/14/06 Perelman, Forward, Israel Blames Attacks on Syria-Iran Axis

July 13, 2006
7/13/06 Erlanger, NYT, Aiming to Kill Hamas Military Leaders, Israeli Air Force Kills 9 Members of a Family Instead

7/13/06 BBC, Israel hits Palestinian ministry

7/13/06 Shadid & Wilson, wp, Hezbollah Raid Opens 2nd Front for Israel

7/13/06 Macintyre, Independent, Israel launches ferocious assault on Lebanon after capture of troops

7/13/06 Ghattas, AP, Israel attacks Beirut airport

7/13//06 Cornwell, Independent, American policy in Middle East caught in 'a perfect storm'

7/13/06 Guardian, Halt the slide to war

7/13/06 McGreal, Guardian, Capture of soldiers was 'act of war' says Israel

7/13/06 Ladki, Reuters, Israel attacks Beirut airport; Israeli town hit

7/13/06 yNet, US: Syria, Iran behind kidnapping in north

7/13/06 Bloomberg, Bush Plays Limited Middle East Role as Israel, Arabs Face Off

7/13/06 Keinon, Jerusalem Post, Atmosphere of war in cabinet meeting

7/13/06 Schiff, Ha'aretz, Northern escalation / Syria: a possible third front

7/13/06 CNN, Israeli jets hit Beirut airport

7/13/06 DebkaFiles, First Hizballah rockets land in Haifa, one of Israel's three main cities and chemicals industrial center

7/13/06, IranMania, Iran declares support for Palestinian militants

7/13/06 CNN, Hezbollah rockets strike Israeli port

7/13/06 CNN, Hezbollah: Violence mixed with social mission

7/13/06 BBC, Lebanese fear Israel's offensive

7/13/06 Beaston, TimesOnline, Analysis: will US step in?

7/13/06 Silva, Chicago Tribune, Bush: Israel has 'right to defend herself'

7/13/06 UPI, Hezbollah, Israel trade bombing threats

July 12, 2006
7/12/06 BBC, Hezbollah warns Israel over raids

7/12/06 BBC, Deaths mount in attacks on Gaza

7/12/06 Guardian, Israel Enters Gaza

7/12/06 AP, Key events in Lebanon-Israel conflict

7/12/06 Wadhams, AP, Qatar circulates revised Israel resolution

7/12/06 yNet, Poll: Americans justify Gaza operation

7/12/06 Prusher, CSM, Severe shortages stymie life in Gaza

7/12/06 BBC, Deaths mount in attacks on Gaza

7/12/06 BBC, Hezbollah seizes Israel soldiers

7/12/06 Urquhart & McGreal, Guardian, Israelis invade Lebanon after soldiers are seized