To Your Health

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You have probably heard that the US will come up at least 50% short of the flu vaccine needed (NYT, 10/06/04). This poses a critical threat to high risk populations, and could make this the most deadly flu season in a long time. Britain has suspended Chiron's license because of concerns about manufacturing (AP, 10/05/04). The concern centers around possible bacterial contamination of the vaccine (NPR, 10/08/04). But there is so much more to this story than problems at Chiron.

The first issue is that The Chiron plant in Liverpool is owned by Chiron of Emeryville, California) While Chiron had reported the problems to the US in August, they said they had isolated the problem and it should not effect delivery.

Representative Henry A. Waxman of California, ranking Democrat on the House Government Reform Committee, said in an interview that the drug agency had "relied on the company too much" for information rather than thoroughly inspecting the factory after the contamination was known. (Pollack, NYT, 10/09/04)

Look what modern corporatism has given us - only two manufacturers of flu vaccine for the entire population of the planet. That seems patently stupid to me, but I'm sure that makes production both "profitable" and "efficient." Further, that given the corporate track record on reporting critical problems that the government would take Chiron's word on the problem.

While the news of the supply problems are big news to us, British health officials reported the problem to US health officials on September 13th (Wa. Post, 10/09/04). MedImmune, the makers of FluMist have been approached to see if they can increase production of their product (NYT, 10/06/04). You may recall that last year there were significant concerns about FluMist. Those concerns focussed around the fact that FluMist is sprayed into the nose, and the first response of most is to start sneezing. This spreads the virus in an uncontrolled way to all in the vicinity, therefore increasing possible infection. Another concern was dosing across different age groups.

Immediate known risks aside, I woke up this morning with a strange confluence of reports streaming through my brain. Maybe this is just the remnants of my paranoid id, but upon reflection the basics are there. I'll lay this out and you can make you own determination of my dregs of sleep thought processes.

On October 2, 2004 I published Critical Health Alerts, in which I discussed concerns about an Avian Flu Pandemic and Mike Davis' article Monster At the Door. To summarize, there is a growing concern that Avian Flu will merge with influenza, and that Avian Flu (in merged or unmerged form) will move from bird-human contagion to human-human contagion. Since Avian Flu in its present state has near a 70% mortality rate, those possibilities are terrifying. Therefore, you can imagine my shock when I saw the headline Killer flu recreated in the lab (BBC, 10/07/04). The article reported that a US team had genetically modified the 1918 virus an injected it into mice, who started dying within days of symptom outbreak. They were trying to isolate the infectious genes combination, as mice were immune to the virus previously. My first thought was "Great. Now we are genetically modifying the killer flu."

Somehow, the news of the vaccine problems, combined with the Avian Flu concerns, and with the genetic experiments with the 1918 influenza virus and what leaped to mind was a story that has gone completely underground - the suspicious deaths of the world's leading microbiologists (FTW. 9/24/02). This was related to an analysis at FTW published in February of 2002 A Career In Microbiology Can Be Harmful To Your Health.

So what did my brain do? 1. We have a critical shortage of flu vaccine at
2. the same time that there are serious concerns about a deadly flu pandemic, following on 3. the suspicious deaths of at least 15 of the worlds leading microbiologists. All this within a rapidly shrinking natural resource environment that will likely only support less than one-third of the current population of the earth.

Maybe none of this is related. Maybe it is a simple collision of events, or events that may be on a collision course. But I can't shake that somehow these do tie together. Regardless, we are in a near crisis situation with the current events in this area.

Assuming no nefarious designs, the simple lack of vaccine is likely to prove highly socially disruptive. The death rate from the flu is likely to be higher (how high is unknown). The contagion rate is likely to be higher, which will take chunks of the workforce out of operation for a period of time. Schools (always a hotbed of spreading contagious disease) may be closed to control spread, and parents are going to have to deal with children usually engaged in school, but now sitting at home. The image of people lying to receive limited vaccines is certainly a possibility. This doesn't even take into consideration the whole issue of SARS and the ongoing threat of another massive outbreak.

As disruptive as lack of vaccine in the US might be, in Asia and elsewhere there isn't adequate vaccine for the population even in optimal times. That has been an ongoing concern with the Avian Flu and trying to figure out how to control it.

At the very least, this looks to be a very disruptive flu season. I would suggest the usual sanitary practices to limit contagion. Namely, keep your distance from folks who are coughing and sneezing. (If it is you, cover your nose and mouth when you sneeze or cough and try to not infect others.) Wash your hands - a lot. Get good rest, nutrition and lots of fluids to keep your immune system high.

Sources
10/06/04 Pollack, NYT, U.S. Will Miss Half Its Supply of Flu Vaccine

10/05/04 AP, Britain Blocks Drug Firm From Supplying Flu Vaccine

10/08/04 NPR, Congress to Probe Flu Vaccine Crisis

10/09/04 WREG/Memphis, Tn., Britain: U.S. Told Of Vaccine Shortage

10/06/04 Rosenwald, Wa. Post, MedImmune Tapped For More Flu Vaccine.

10/02/04 Wolf, UTJ, Critical Health Alerts

9/30/04 Davis, CommonDreams, Monster At the Door

10/07/04 BBC, Killer flu recreated in the lab

9/24/02 Taglieri & Ruppert, FTW, Biowarfare: CDC Issues Plan for Mass Smallpox Vaccinations. Questions Raised on MEHPA and Microbiologist Deaths

5/28/02 Davidson & Ruppert, A Career In Microbiology Can Be Harmful To Your Health ( Death Toll Mounting as Connections to DYNCORP, HADRON, PROMIS SOFTWARE and Disease Research Emerge)

Posted by rowan at October 9, 2004 07:41 AM | TrackBack | Printable Version | [eMail this article!] |