What to do about the thinning ranks?

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Folks, myself included, have been speculating about how the US forces are stretched thin and that this will become a crisis in the near future (Spring 2004). There are speculations on the resumption of the draft, and some evidence that may happen. Many units are currently in back-to-back deployments - especially reserves. Some were stationed in Afghanistan, came home and have been redeployed to Iraq to replace troops there who need to be rotated out. My guess is that as spring approaches there will be more in the news.

There is an interesting discussion of this situation in today's NY Times -- The Thinning of the Army.

"This is the clearest warning yet that the Bush administration is pushing America's peacetime armed forces toward their limits. Washington will not be able to sustain the mismatch between unrealistic White House ambitions and finite Pentagon means much longer without long-term damage to our military strength. The only solution is for the Bush administration to return to foreign policy sanity, starting with a more cooperative, less vindictive approach to European allies who could help share America's military burdens.

Long months under constant threat of rocket attacks, roadside ambushes and deadly confrontations with civilians in Iraq have left tens of thousands of American soldiers tired, jumpy and badly in need of a break, one that should last at least several months. Most American strategists fear at least a temporary upsurge in attacks as the troop rotations get under way and maneuvering to produce an interim Iraqi government intensifies. "

There is likely to be an upsurge in Iraq troop shortage because the UK has expended it's entire war budget. Given the tenor of public sentiment about UK presence in Iraq, appropriating more funding may be an uphill battle. This could mean that the second largest nation-based coalition member may need to withdraw its forces. (US Corporations are actually the second largest foreign presence in Iraq).

One of the strategies to slow down troop size decreases has been for the DoD to issue a "stop loss" order. This means that soldiers (including Guard and Reserve) whose time of service is completed are not being allowed to leave the military. Lee Hockstrader (Wa. Post, 12/29/03) has an interesting tidbit of info about how long the personnel may be retained -2030 or beyond!!!!!
(Army Stops Many Soldiers From Quitting)

Hockstrader says that this is the "computer's way" of indicating that the date is uncertain. He points out that the stop loss order currently effects roughly 40,000 active duty troops and 16,000 Guard and Reserve troops. If the stop loss stays in effect for long, it could impact far more.

There is an interesting consequence to keep an eye on. The number of active duty personnel is set by Congress. That number is 480,000. The stop loss order has increased the number of active duty personnel to 500,000. According to Hockstrader, this has led some legislators to question the constitutional legality of the size of force being increased without Congressional approval.

The DoD utilization of stop loss orders is not uncommon in times of war. I believe that extending that order beyond 26 years is new. That essentially opens the possibility of military service as a forced life-long comittment. The move is certainly not going to improve the morale of those currently serving. In fact, for some it may increase their sense of frustration and anger, and that is likely to come out at the "enemy." That "enemy" at this point has become any "Arab" in Iraq.

There are already reports of the violence and brutality of the US occupation forces. There are already reports of abuse of prisoners and torture being used on at least some prisoners. There are already reports of US troops firing into crowds, and even firing into crowds that are running away. Telling those troops that they aren't going to get out of the military for a very long time is not going to improve that situation. Nor is it going to improve the perception of US forces or purpose in Iraq.

The situation in Iraq has been seen as a "powder keg" in the past. I think that the fuse has been lit.

Posted by rowan at December 29, 2003 10:03 AM | TrackBack | Printable Version | [eMail this article!] |