Who is running for President

While rumors float that Howard Dean may pursue an independent Presidential run, Nader announces presidential bid (BBC, 2/22/04). I don't know about you, but this surprised me as I thought that the Greens (and Nader) had decided to not run in this election. I am totally supportive for expansion of voice and issues, so I have been dismayed as Mosley-Braun, Clark, and now Dean have dropped out of the running. I am very glad that Kucinich and Sharpton have stayed in. Given that, on one hand I feel it is a good move for Nader to add his voice. On the other, I think that it may harm the Greens, and Nader's environmental and social justice voice over the long haul.

The polls are all over the place, but given margin of error, the Dems are running neck and neck with Bush at this point. There are clear signs of fracture on the conservative side - particularly between the conservatives and neo-conservatives (see Schisms on the Right, UTJ, 2/18/04). It also seems that Disenchanted Bush Voters Consider Crossing Over (NYT, 2/24/04). However, NOW did a report last night on zionist evangelical Christians and one stat they slipped in was that 45% of Bush's base is evangelical Christians.

That is a huge piece of support, and one that has been increasingly political. If we look at Bush's "faith-based" policies, then he has done little in that area to dissatisfy that group. Some may be troubled by his not issuing an Excutive Order about same sex marriages, but he has done little else to make evangelical Christians nervous about his policies - including his continued dance with Israel.

The political power of evangelical Chrisitans in the US was addressed by 60 Minutes in their report Rise Of The Righteous Army (2/08/04). The lead-in for the report stated:

Evangelical Christians form one of the most potent forces in American politics and society. They are people who place their faith, a personal relationship with Jesus Christ, above everything else in their lives and hope to spread that Gospel to the world.

An estimated 70 million Americans call themselves evangelicals, and their beliefs have already reshaped American politics. In the last election, 40 percent of the votes for George W. Bush came from their ranks, and now those beliefs are beginning to reshape the culture as well ...

It seems unlikely to me that Bush is going to do anything to cause these voters to question whether he is God's appointee in Washington. Therefore, the majority of these voters are unlikely to become swing voters.

What is somewhat frightening to me is that the neo-conservative voice which is so loud and clear in the Bush White House largely follows a path that seems appropriate to the zionist evangelical Christians. Therefore, while conservatives may be increasingly nervous about Bush, both of his extremeist groups seem firmly behind him.

This is not to say that all evangelical Chrisitans support Bush, nor that all are even highly politicly active. However, those that do back him are a highly organized and dedicated group.

Returning to the "voice" issue, I think that the more voices involved in the presidential process the more likely that critical issues are going to be raised. I do not think that Nader is likely to "pull" votes that would lead to a Bush victory in 2004. I do believe that these voices bring critical issues and perspectives into the public view, and do change the nature of the visions being promoted by the "front runners." This has been clear to me in the way that response to Kucinich's and Sharpton's messages have pushed the focus to a broader and more radical agenda - even Dean's. Certainly Dean pushed a broader message on those further towards the middle/left as well. Perhaps as candidates see what is resonating with voters, their views and policies change. Perhaps it is just an attempt to steal support from another candidate. One thing I am sure of is that the Democratic Party's message has changed as much as the visions promoted by some of the candidates. That is critical because the line between the Democrats and Republicans had become very fine in the eyes of many.

Posted by rowan at February 22, 2004 9:35 AM | TrackBack | [eMail this article!] |