Could Things Get More Convoluted in Iraq?

Just when you would think that things couldn't get more convoluted in Iraq, they do. Let's just start with the Kurds in Northern Iraq. They were protected to some extent by the illegal no-fly zone during the 11 years of UN sanctions, but were raided by Turkey periodically because Turkey fears having the Kurds on its border. The Kurds were independent allies of the US during the invasion of Iraq. There have been fears that they would go their own way and perhaps fracture Iraq into at least two different states. Now the Kurds are pushing their territory, but are they doing it alone?

It appears that Israelis 'using Kurds to build power base' (Guardian, 6/21/04). Israel has hundreds of agents in northern Iraq (Ha'aretz, 6/20). Both of these reports are in part based on the "Old Uncoverer" Seymour Hersh whose latest expose is in the 6/28/04 New Yorker - PLAN B. Israel is operating supporting the Kurds because they feel threatened by Iran, and believe that the security situation in Iraq is crumbling.

"Israeli intelligence and military operatives are now quietly at work in Kurdistan, providing training for Kurdish commando units and, most important in Israel’s view, running covert operations inside Kurdish areas of Iran and Syria. Israel feels particularly threatened by Iran, whose position in the region has been strengthened by the war. The Israeli operatives include members of the Mossad, Israel’s clandestine foreign-intelligence service, who work undercover in Kurdistan as businessmen and, in some cases, do not carry Israeli passports." (Hersh)

Of course, the Israeli activity is making Turkey nervous because they fear that the pressure will mount to make Kurdistan and independent state. The existence of that state on the border of Turkey is seen as a major security threat.

It does not help the situation that the Kurds see yet another potential betrayal by the US in the new Iraq. The Kurds are a minority, and are concerned that they will be left out, or left powerless under a new Iraqi government. Hersh predicts that "A (Kurdish) declaration of independence would trigger a Turkish response—and possibly a war—and also derail what has been an important alliance for Israel. Turkey and Israel have become strong diplomatic and economic partners in the past decade."

Israel is apparently training some Kurds in advanced commando tactics (does this sound familiar?), which only increases the concern of Turkey. The US is not unaware of the Israeli activities, but may be looking the other way because the see it as applying more pressure on Iran which is accused of having a well developed nuclear program.

Meanwhile, there are the "insurgents" (opposers of US occupation) inside Iraq, who are posing no end of problems for the US. This has been a losing battle that has included curfews, sieges, and active combat. THe biggest headline in this regard lately has been the missile attack on Faluja which killed (an estimated) 22 people. The attack was yet another failed response as it killed only civilians (VOA, 6/20/04). This "error" has once again increased the anger against the US and is seen as posing a threat to the handover of power to Iraq (Independent, 6/20/04).

But over the last couple of months, the US has been running a dual campaign. On one hand fighting with "insurgents," and on the other, using if you can't beat 'em join 'em approach. So we have active fighting at the same time the US is recruiting them - THE STRUGGLE FOR IRAQ: SECURITY; Failing to Disband Militias, U.S. Moves to Accept Them (Filkins, NYT, 5/28/04). The carrot for those who cooperate is ban them from participation in the new government. However, that plan may be eroding as well Sadr is invited to participate in the national conference (ABC, 6/21/04) to discuss the shape of the new Iraqi government.

Meanwhile, the interim government has decides to outlaw the militias (Wa. Post, 6/8/04) and possibly declare martial law (NYT, 6/21/04) - at least for those militias who haven't joined the Iraqi security forces.

But now there is more unaccounted money flowing through US hands. The US has siphoned off about $2.5 Billion from Iraq oil profits to pay for "security." According to the 6/21/04 article by Steve Weisman of the NY Times, U.S. Is Quietly Spending $2.5 Billion From Iraqi Oil Revenues to Pay for Iraqi Projects, the slowness of reconstruction money just doesn't match a satchel of money in hand. Other satchels are being filled with dollars confiscated by the US during the 1991 Iraq war (an estimated $1 - $2 billion disbursed thus far):

"The teams have become famous in Iraq for the way they have spread across the country, commissioning repairs and paying for them from satchels bulging with $100 bills shipped by plane from a Federal Reserve vault in East Rutherford, N.J. Much of that money came from Iraqi assets frozen in the United States during the Persian Gulf war in 1991."

Aside: Didn't we "freeze" assets after 9/11, and also Hussein's assets after the invasion? Are these legal confisgations?

This use of Iraqi oil dollars and seized assets should be ringing alarm bells. The money being "spread around" is virtually unaccounted for. The whole purpose of using it is (apparently) to avoid the red tape (oversight) of the use of the $18 Billion coming from the US tax payers for reconstruction. In other words, this money is virtually untraceable. Now there is a business opportunity for you. Billions of dollars with no accountability. Maybe the US has found a new money source for its covert operations. Of course, one has to ask the question of whether this money is only going to activities in Iraq, or if it is also being funneled elsewhere.

Weisman notes that there are questions about the US using the oil revenue in this way as it is supposed to be there for the new Iraq government and the people of Iraq. Draining the bank of the new government doesn't seem to be a current concern for the US. Please keep this little tidbit in mind if the US gets asked for an emergency appropriation for the Iraqi government.

So there we have the Iraq strategy - buy them, bribe them, kill them and find unaccountable money to spend. Look the other way as Israel creates and army among the Kurds (as the US did in Afghanistan and is in the process of doing with hiring militias in Iraq). Build the problems of tomorrow today. That is the US strategy in Iraq, and make a profit for some throughout the whole process.

Posted by rowan at June 21, 2004 6:35 AM | TrackBack | [eMail this article!] |