The Final Debate

Well tonight is the final debate scheduled for the 2004 Presidential election. Paul Krugman had an editorial yesterday Checking the Facts, in Advance which bears reading. While it is aimed at the Bush campaign rhetoric, the facts apply to either candidate. I'll summarize some of those issues below.

Jobs
The economy needs roughly 1.6 million new jobs each year just to absorb increases in the workforce. While this last year's numbers (so far) are slightly ahead of that, over Bush's tenure the number of jobs has not kept up with this base figure. Not addressed by Krugman is the quality of the jobs created (many of which are replacements for jobs lost). This is noted in a variety of reports and articles, but you might check out Permanent Job Proves An Elusive Dream. There is a dramatic increase in the use of temporary versus permanent workers, declines in wages and in benefits. As is noted in the article:

Since January 2002, the nation added 369,000 temp positions, about half of the private-sector jobs created during that stretch. Temporary jobs accounted for one-third of the 96,000 jobs added to the economy in September. In 1982, there were 417,000 workers classified as temporary help. Today, there are more than 2.5 million, according to Labor Department data.

Unemployment
Krugman notes that while unemployment is down a fraction, that the percentage of those in the workforce has not increased, and the labor force participation rate (those either working or actively seeking work) has actually fallen significantly. With those things taken into consideration the unemployment rate has actually increased to 7.4% (estimate).

Fiscal Responsibility
The independent estimate of the costs of the Kerry plan is $2 trillion, and $3 trillion for the Bush plan.