More Bad News - Oil and Environment

Well the Oil Depletion Analysis Center is predicting that New Oil Projects Cannot Meet World Needs This Decade. Yes you read that right - this decade. According to the report:

If demand were to increase by two percent annually, available supplies could fall short of the total needed in 2010 by more than two million barrels a day – roughly equivalent to losing all of Kuwait's current daily production.

Unfortunately global demand is rising at roughly 3% a year. But that figure is contradicted by the Oil Market Report of the International Energy Agency.

• Global demand growth for the second quarter was exceptionally robust at 5%, or 3.84 mb/d, reflecting both strong, synchronous economic growth and the impact of last year’s Severe Acute respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak. The second-quarter estimate has been trimmed marginally, in light of latest data showing weaker-than-expected deliveries in Brazil and Japan. Stronger FSU exports than initially estimated also trim the assessment of FSU implied demand. However, those cuts were partly offset by stronger-than-forecast oil deliveries in Europe, notably the UK and Spain.

That is almost twice the demand increase and triple the projections of ODAC.

And the US reponse to these reports? A Car Even Bigger Than the Hummer. Yes, those on the streets and hiways of the US should watch out for "Smart Truck 3." It outweighs the Hummer H2 by 3000 pounds; is 3 inches taller and 4 feet longer; but supposedly gets better fuel consumption than the H2 (really?) Smart Truck 3 (will they really market it with that name) is a joint venture by the US Army and International Truck. The military version comes loaded with anthrax detection, kevlar undercarriage, and night vision capability. The commercial version is supposed to lack those amenities, but I can see a big demad for the military version - can't you?

Meanwhile there is a new initiative by the US and 13 other countries to capture methane to reduce global warming emissions. Yes, methane - CO2 is the other global warming gas to be "captured." Methane is the second biggest contributor to global warming gases at 16% - CO2 makes up a whopping 74%. Now if you want to get really confused, read this:

The United States is underwriting some of the costs of the nonbinding methane agreement, $53 million over five years. It calls on the participating industrialized countries to help poorer countries capture and market methane leaking from countries to use American expertise to develop methods of capturing the gas from landfills, coal mines and oil and gas operations.

The gas would then be sold for energy.

Say WHAT?

I have suggested for decades (literally) that the US convert sewage treatment plants into methane plants which could then be used as an "energy source." But the suggestion above appears to be to convert "poorer countries to use methane rather than oil - which would assure that there is more oil for nations such as the US. How profitable. Methane leaking from countries ??? It would seem that the US would have more methane production than almost anywhere else given all the feedlots and sewage facilities. And US expertise? Really? Where are we capturing methane and using it for energy production?

With the prediction of rapidly depleting oil supplies, the competition for what remains will be high. Controlling those dwindling sources is certainly central to the Bush plan, and drives the Bush doctrine of developing new nuclear weapons (and a purported "shield" to protect us from "terrorist" use of nuclear missles). Therefore it is not surprising that the nuclear arms race is on in a big way. Nor is it a surprise that Russia is not to be outdone in this race - Russia is developing a new nuclear missile. Putin clains that Russia's system will be deployed in the near future, an "Moreover, they will be systems, weapons that not a single other nuclear power has, or will have, in the near future."

Oh Boy.

Meanwhile, the consequences of all this stupidity leaves scientists , environmentalists and others bemoaning the the destruction of Mt. Everest, and the rest of us watching the ever-shrinking artic and the death of arctic life and the peoples who depend on it.

Interesting Articles
Oil Prices - Developments and Effects Benigni, PVM Oil Assoc., 1/2001.

Argonne Economist Predicts Gas Price Bump and Following Recession - Argonne National Laboratory. (part 2 of 3).

Posted by rowan at November 18, 2004 8:05 AM | TrackBack | [eMail this article!] |