March 12, 2006
Game Theory: The Ball is Rolling - Part 2
BY: Mathew Maavak
"The United States has the power to cause harm and pain," said Ali Asghar Soltanieh, a senior Iranian delegate to the IAEA. "But the United States is also susceptible to harm and pain. So if that is the path that the U.S. wishes to choose, let the ball roll."
There you have it. A game of brinkmanship being played out, keeping millions on the edge of the seat while the rest of the world is lulled into complacency. Such tit for tat provocations leave either party little leeway for a middle ground. The Iranians seem pretty sure of exacting a heavy price in the event of hostilities, and they will not go down without a ferocious fight when that happens.
The US has other options. If a civil war escalates in Iraq, there is that troop drawdown avenue. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has indicated that the Iraqis will have to deal with their own civil war, and that is precisely what may happen. An Iraqi civil war, however, will embroil other Gulf States and Tehran, imperiling global supplies of oil. A low-intensity conflict - including terrorists attacks on oil installations - would be sufficient. Outright hostilities could break out when some lunatic carries out an act of sabotage to spark war between US forces and the Iranians. Again, there is no shortage of protagonists itching for this morbid drama. We still do not know who carried out the bombing on the al-Askariya mosque in Samarra and whether the 1,200-year-old tombs are unscathed.
In the meantime, those North Korean missiles fired this week represent a quantum leap in terms of precision and reliability. No rewards for guessing where that technology came from. OK, it comes from a Security Council member who regularly resorts to the nuclear and missile blackmail as part of its grand diplomacy. I hear Pakistan is getting “civilian” nuclear reactors from Beijing while A.Q. Khan resides somewhere more comfortable than Guantanamo or The Hague.
Speaking before the U.S. House Armed Services Committee on Thursday in Washington, General B.B. Bell said North Korea was also moving ahead with the development of longer-range ballistic missiles that could hit Alaska and targets in the continental United States.
I am skeptical about the range, but the news fits the game.
Why I’d keep a w(e)ary eye on the EU
I believe history repeats itself. The US Army had to dispatch its soldiers thrice in the past 60 years alone to put a stop to ….genocide in Europe. The latest one happened to be in ex-Yugoslavia. Europe does nothing against Turkey for its incessant genocidal designs on Kurds. Talk about “civilization” in the post-war 20th century. And this is the region that wants to mediate in the Israeli-Palestinian problem? And human rights abuses elsewhere? It has pretty much easily induced a Third World Dependency in its ex-colonies for trade. Politicians, intellectuals, academics and students are selectively favoured to perpetuate this neo-slavery. When nations like India turn more independent and powerful, and its citizens rewarded for merit, guess who they find common values with? Yes, that other democracy where political shenanigans are scrutinized, dissected and ripped apart for public consumption. If you can't find them on Fox News, try the Internet. Most of the world doesn't have this privilege.
Maybe I read too much into history. But Hitler did have a Christian Solution after the Jewish Solution was solved through a successful war. Copious references to the Christian Solution in Ian Kershaw’s Nemesis. The gas chambers of Auschwitz were preceded by the porgroms, Inquisitions and the lions of the Coliseum.
Where were the Brits during the 1938 Evian conference?.
Makes you wonder who wants the New World Order badly, and who is eyed as the historical meddler. Will 1938 repeat itself to devour the same victims?
Mathew Maavak
Jakarta, March 10, 2006