Possible Korean Missile Test

I live on the west coast of the United States, so George Bush's ongoing failure to talk with North Korea is a bit personal. It is more personal as it is reported that NK is preparing to test a missile capable of landing in my front yard. I said "reported" because North Korea has denied and such test - or even the existence of the missile. What we have are "intelligence" reports, and we have learned to take those with lots of condiments.

Regardless, even the threat of an ICBM test is enough to raise stress levels, and both Japan and the U.S. have said they would take harsh action. I believe that means more economic sanctions, but Bush never takes preemptive nuclear attack off the table.

So the U.S. Navy has moved into position to detect any missile launch from North Korea I stress the word "detect," because we have very poor luck with missile "defense."

As far as I can tell, the $10 billion (plus) missile defense system has been a miserable failure. The last announced test was in December 2004, and it was scrubbed when it failed to launch. That was the first test since 2002 when the test was rigged so the test would succeed. Prior to that, seven tests since 1999 had also failed. Among prior tests, the system had been successful "five out of eight times." However those "successes" had been criticized by knowing the exact trajectory and timing of the firing of the dummy targets.

So, if North Korea has an ICBM capable of reaching the west coast, the Navy will let us know as it passes over their heads. If North Korea thinks there might be a military reprisal for testing, then why test at all? Why not make the "test" a real test - warhead and all.

Of course, this is all supposition down to and including whether North Korea even has such a missile and is planning to test it. In a world of disinformation and propaganda it is increasingly difficult to tell what is real. Or even what part of what we hear is real.