Israel and U.S. May Have Bitten Off More Than They Can Chew

Israel is continuing its bombing in spite of saying they were calling a 48 hour cease fire after the destruction in Qana. The cabinet has voted to extend the ground invasion, and the Bush administration continues to "give them time" (and arms). Meanwhile Syria has moved its military to a higher status of alert, and Lebanese align more closely with Hizbullah. The purported goal of the massive destruction of Lebanese cities and infrastructure is to weaken Hizbullah. Their actions may have just the opposite effect.

It is apparently the "belief" of both Israel and the United States, that the massive bombardment of Lebanon will undermine Hizbullah's military arm (and one assume it's political power). The effort is also under way to force the government of Lebanon to deploy its military against Hizbullah. However, Lebanon has already threatened to join its forces with Hizbullah to fight the Israeli incursion. Now Syria, and possibly other nations, seem ready to join the fighting. This rears the possibility of a much different scenario that Bush and Olmert have in mind.

Israel is clearing refusing to even temporarily suspend its bombing and increasing ground forces to allow humanitarian aid, and evacuation. More children are being killed by Israel than Hizbullah fighters. If the militaries of Lebanon and Syria end up reinforcing Hizbullah, then that will strengthen Hizbullah's legitimacy and power - not undermine it. It may also weaken the governmental voice in both Lebanon and Syria.

Israel is learning a lesson from the US book of failures - high-tech weapons are not a magic solution. The US military strategy under Bush and Rumsfeld have been to shift combat to high technology. The goal is to fight remotely, utilizing drones and other distance weaponry to carry out the bulk of the fighting. Unfortunately, this was not successful in Afghanistan, Iraq, nor Lebanon. The wide spread destruction and death among civilian populations rouses resistance and spreads the conflict. It does not apparently "shock and awe" people into submission.

This failed approach seems clear in the bombing of Qana. Israel claims they fired on Qana because of a rocket launch from that city. However, both Red Cross workers and civilians in Qana say there were no Hizbullah rockets from Qana. Was this another "accident" as with the repeated shelling of the UN monitors post? Or was it a deliberate targeting of civilians? Regardless, the bombing of Qana may have been the final push to the public in mobilizing against Israel (and the U.S.).

8/01/06 Finer et al, Washington Post, No Cease-Fire Soon, Israeli Leader Says

8/01/06 Smith and Erlanger, NY Times, Israel Pushes On Despite Agreeing to Airstrike Lull

7/26/06 Shanghai Daily, Four UN observers killed by Israel bomb