The Haunting Past Is the Daunting Present

The "Iran Problem" is on the table with the US pushing the UN Security Council for sanctions, and Russia blocking sanctions. I get a haunting feeling of deja vu, or perhaps the past is never the past.

An article by Anna Badhken in the 9/10/06 SF Gate, "Russia's ties to Iran a roadblock to U.S. Trade, geopolitical interests trump sanctions effort" stirred up old memories for some reason. I was at least somewhat globally aware in 1979 when the Iranian hostage crisis was happening, and Ayatollah Khomeni ran Reza Shah out of the country.

At that time, many were asking what is up with Iran and hostages. In many ways, the taking of the U.S. embassy in Iran got a response similar to the events of 9/11/2001. People were asking "What did they do that." Back in that time, there was still such a thing as investigative reporting, and I remember reading a fair amount about Iran in the newspaper. Of course, the whole story wasn't there, but enough to send me on a different search for information. Over the years, more information has come publicly to light, and my memory is not exact enough to sort out what I knew then from what I learned later. So this is my dredged memories of the relationship between the US and Iran.

The U.S. got involved with Iran around WWII because of its strategic importance - particularly in relationship to oil. That interest continued and intensified as competition between the USSR and the United States continued and intensified. In the 1950's, the CIA intervened in an Iranian election to put Reza Pahlavi Shah in power over Mossadegh. The CIA and the US then kept Pahlavi in power until he was overthrown by Khomeni. Part of the uprising was the capturing of the U.S. embassy in Tehran and the taking of U.S. hostages. That hostage situation lasted 444 days. The coup by Khomeni marked the closing of the door on U.S. - Iranian relations. (In retrospect, the significance of the revolution in Iran increases rather than decreases.)

Under Reza Shah, the United States blocked the interests and influence of the USSR in Iran, and maintained geopolitical control. With the exit of the U.S. and the fundamentalist revolution of Khomeni, the door was reopened for relations between the USSR (and later Russia) and Iran. Now, 26 years later, the ties and mutual interests between Iran and Russia are strong and significant.

In many ways, Iran was a proxy for the United States in the fight against the USSR. This was a fight that extended to Russian influence in Afghanistan, and result in the U.S. (via the CIA once again) initiated and funded what later became Al Qaeda (a different story of blowback).

Now Iran stands with some sense of power in a geopolitical environment that has become magnified and more complicated. The U.S. actions in South Asia, Iraq, and the Middle East have eroded US credibility while straining US resources. Russian and China have forged ties with each other, and with other nations within the region. Oil and pipeline deals aside, it is those interests and not US interests which seem to be gaining strength.

Meanwhile, we have Iran who holds oil flow over the head of the U.S. The U.S. and Israel, keep making threats (veiled and otherwise) to preemptively invade Iran. Certainly "regime change" is on the mind of the Bush administration. However, the U.S. does not want open conflict with Russia (or China), but it seems old wounds have not healed - despite the purported ending of the Cold War.

One might say that history is repeating itself, or that this is a case of "blowback" (when former interventions come back to bite you in the butt). However, the issue then as now, is really about oil and gas interests. Given the global decline in oil and gas resources, Iran has become even more important over time - not less so. It strategic significance for Russia and the U.S. (and now China and India as well) has only increased. Iran's independent influence has also dramatically increased - particularly with the convenient removal of Saddam Hussein.

It remains to be seen whether either the U.S. or Israel (and therefore the U.S.) will be foolhardy enough to act unilaterally against Iran. I have a gnawing feeling that if there is a foolhardy move to make, that the current Administration will make it.

Posted by rowan at September 10, 2006 8:31 AM | [eMail this article!] |