Iran: Sanctions and Response

The UN Security Council's Resolution 1737 essentially demands that Iran suspend nuclear activities and submit to IAEA transparency. To that end, it poses technology import restrictions and restrictions on a variety of agencies, businesses, and individuals. It does not either approve, or provide a path to, military consequences for noncompliance. The approval of the sanctions has evoked a less than positive response from Iran.

A bill passed by the Iranian Parliament and approved by the Guardian Council, gives the government a "free hand" in responding to the Security Council resolution. That "free hand" includes the possibility of accelerating nuclear development, ending cooperation with the IAEA, and withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT). In other words, the ante has been raised once again.

From the rebuttal given by Dr. Zarif after the Security Council vote, it is clear that Iran feels that they are being denied their rights under the NPT; that a case is being manufactured against them; and that the rules of nuclear weapon development and possession are being applied unequally. Further, their responses to U.S. pressures has consistently been escalation - at least in terms of rhetoric. It is also clear, that Iran has the upper hand over the U.S. economically with both its oil, and the ease with which it could block the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait is significant because much of the oil out of the Persian Gulf travels through it.

It remains to be seen how significant an impact Resolution 1737 might actually be. Several of the businesses directly named, as well as a number of individuals specified, are connected to the "AIO." AIO is Aerospace Industries Organization. From the best I can determine, the AIO is in some ways similar to DARPA in the U.S.. It is a state-owned company which also controls a number of other subsidiaries. However, AIO is a subsidiary of Sanam Industrial Group. Sanam seems to be somewhat similar to General Electric - a major U.S. defense contractor, but also a major commercial enterprise.

If the sanctions stretch as far as Sanam, then they will likely dramatically impact the entire Iranian defense industry - not just nuclear development. It could also significantly impact non-military production. This could result in something similar to the sanctions that were placed on Iraq where pencils could not be imported because they contained graphite.

Meanwhile, more fuel is being added to the fire in what seems to be an effort to provoke a response from Iran. These include, the movement of battleships and aircraft carriers to the Gulf, and the Iranian diplomats in Iraq.

All of this has created an increasingly explosive situation. Iran is a significant influence in the Gulf. It is important as a collaborator for peace in Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine. It is also watched with a cautious eye by the leadership of Saudi Arabia. Which brings us back to the United States and the deteriorating situation in Iraq. The Saudis do not want the U.S. out of Iraq. In part, because they do not want to have to directly (and militarily) intervene to protect Iraqi Sunnis. If they had to do that, it would place them 4-square in conflict with the Iraqi Shias. That could potentially put them at loggerheads with Iran and its Shia leadership.

In other words, we are looking at a situation that could easily spiral out of control. The pessimist in me says it is already spiraling. Regardless, to all appearances, it looks as if the U.S. is going to continue to try and out-bully Iran. I do not believe that is a good idea. Nor do I believe that placing the negotiating and economic power in the hands of Russia and China is a good idea. Both already have strong economic ties to Iran - and to Iran's defense industry. It is unlikely that they will "influence" Iran to their own detriment.

Aside from suspicions, Iran has operated within the bounds of the NPT. However, like other international agreements, the United States has officially determined it is above the NPT. That does not give the U.S. a very strong negotiation stance when it comes to expecting other nations (including Iran) to abide by it.

See Also
Aerospace Industries Organization (AIO); Sanam Industrial Group; Sanam Industries Group; Lavizan;
Sultanatabad [Saltanatabad] at GlobalSecurity.org

Sanam Industrial Group

Posted by rowan at December 28, 2006 6:56 AM | [eMail this article!] |