Attack Iran? What Reality Are We In?

Well, Bush has been moving threateningly towards striking Iran for the last the last two years. With the movement of the fleet into the Gulf and pointing threateningly towards Iran, the threat drew closer. Now we have a report coming out of Scotland that the U.S. is poised to strike Iran before April from bases in Bulgaria and Romania.

The threat of a U.S. preemptive strike is apparently high enough that el-Baradei of the IAEA has warned of the catastrophic consequences of such a strike, and is urging returning to dialog. Bush has rejected the UN's request for a "timeout."

Meanwhile, the U.S. continues to try and build a case to support a preemptive strike. In this case, claiming that "Iran, Syria and Hezbollah are causing chaos in Lebanon." Bush continues to threaten an aggressive military response to any aggressive Iranian actions in Iraq.

Juan Cole presents a potential catastrophe if Iranian pilgrims inside Iraq are attacked by US forces. Such a mistake could rapidly place the U.S. and Iran into open warfare.

Iran has refused to respond to provocation, but its strengthening of official ties to Iraq are not at all well received by the U.S.. Likewise the strengthening relations between Iraqi Kurds in the north are being discouraged - the U.S. raid on the Iranian Consulate is a case in point.

Over it all rides business as usual as Shell tries to close a major gas deal with Iran. Such a deal may fall afoul of the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act (renewed in 2001). On the other hand, Russia has continued to deliver its anti-missile orders to Iran. That might say something about who might align up opposite a U.S. strike on Iran.