Keep an eye on Pakistan

Things are not going well in Pakistan. Musharraf has lost any popularity he might once have had with his collaboration with the US. While Musharraf was pretty public in stating the US strong armed him into supporting the invasion of Pakistan, that does not seem to be a forgivable sin to the Pakistanis. The shakiness of the Musharraf government should be of primary concern to the U.S.

Musharraf and Pakistan are of critical importance in containing al Qaida and as a base of support for the United States. As noted in the Asia Times in January 2007, US elevates Pakistan to regional kingpin."

Pakistan is a nuclear power who has had the support of, and military exchange with, the United States. What might happen should a government much less friendly to the U.S. and its interests come into power. There have been multiple attempts on Musharraf's life. While he came to power with a bloodless coup, that does not mean that he will not be overthrown himself. The recent conflict around his firing of the Chief Justice seems to be mobilizing increasing resistance against him. Further, that resistance is among what might be considered an elite in Pakistan - lawyers and judges.

So if Musharraf's hold is tenuous, how careful must the U.S. be in its demands of Pakistan? On the surface, it seems it must be very careful. That is the message that is generally put forward by U.S. officials. However, as noted in an article by it is Musharraf's military backing that is critical, and that backing seems more concerned about possible actions from the U.S. that of Musharraf.

In the land of lies and half truths, it is difficult to make a clear determination of the threat that the Musharraf regime is under. It is clear that a delicate line is being walked in terms of how much influence the U.S. actually holds over Pakistan. On one hand, Musharraf must present an independent face to the people of his country. On the other, the U.S. wants to present an "ally" who is firmly in hand.

Which brings us to who is pulling whose chain? Just why, and on whose orders is Pakistan supporting Mugabe? Mugabe is the Prime Minister of Zimbabwe and is under pressure for a raft of human rights violations. [Note: Mugabe has been the only leader of Zimbabwe since its independence in 1987.] As noted in a New York Times editorial, Mugabe seems to be becoming the archetype power mad dictator:

Now, the 83-year-old Mr. Mugabe seems to have descended into total power-madness. He has barred opponents from leaving the country, ordered his thugs to literally crack the skulls of opposition leaders, accused his own party's youth group of plotting against him, and told Western critics to "go hang." Last week, he threatened to run again in 2008 for another six-year term.

With hyperinflation making its currency almost worthless, Zimbabwe is running short of basic commodities like milk, cooking oil and gasoline. Fewer than one in four Zimbabweans have jobs, and life expectancy, nearly 60 in 1990, has plunged into the 30s.

What does Zimbabwe have to offer? Primarily a lot of mineral resources and a well developed industrial infrastructure (CIA World Fact Book).

While the U.S. condemns the actions of Mugabe's government, Pakistan sends Mugabe "military experts." Do they do this in resistance to the wishes of the United States, or because of pressure from the U.S.? I certainly don't know either way, but it is one of those gnawing issues in the overall US-Pakistan "relationship."

Regardless of the answer to that, it is in the current interests of the United States to keep Musharraf in power. How far that will go if the outright resistance against him continues to escalate is anyone's guess. However, I would be surprised if the U.S. was not "cultivating" someone more palatable to the "masses" but still willing to dance with the U.S. One thing that is clear is that a significant change in Pakistan jeopardizes U.S. (and others) "interests" in Afghanistan and the region.

All said, we should be keeping a much closer eye on Pakistan.

Other sources of interest
3/20/07 Jan, Independent, Five more Pakistani judges resign over removal of chief justice

Witte, WP, 3/18/07 Suspension of chief judge sparks Pakistan protests

3/16/07 BBC, Confrontation in Pakistan deepens

1/27/07 Bhadrakumar, Asia Times, US elevates Pakistan to regional kingpin

1/11/07, Peta, Independent, Pakistani military experts strengthen Mugabe's army

Posted by rowan at March 24, 2007 8:32 AM | [eMail this article!] |