Uncommon Thought Journal: Iran is NOT a Nuclear threat?

December 3, 2007

Iran is NOT a Nuclear threat?

Ok, according to the new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) summary Iran:Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities or here, Iran is NOT a nuclear threat. In fact, the report states that Iran ended its active nuclear weapons program in 2003.

While the report is instructive (see below), it is perhaps most significant as a political document. There is acknowledged agreement that Cheney pressured and massaged the 2002 NIE on Iran. That pressure also extended to the 2005 report which while stating that Iran was at least a decade from a nuclear weapon, still judged the threat high and imminent (see below). So why is it that despite continued administration mobilization to strike Iran, that the new NIE pulls the rug from under the argument? Indeed, it actually includes the changes in estimate between the 2005 and 2007 report. The summary below is directly from the summary:

Key Differences Between the Key Judgments of This Estimate on Iran's Nuclear
Program and the May 2005 Assessment (page 9)

So is this a sign that the intelligence community - including DNI Michael Mukasey - are actively revolting against the Bush administration? Is the threat that the administration will attack Iran so high that a public statement directly undermining the the spin was seen as necessary to defuse that plan?

Are we safer yet ?

I haven't seen a "what if" article yet. But just think about the consequences of the USA bombing Iran only to discover (once again) it was based on a lie.

Lets not let the Dems off the hook here either, Hillary was right there voting to make the Iran Guard a terroist group.

I always hear the right complaining about a waste of tax dollars, how much does a war cost that is based on incorrect premise.

How many dollars a year do we spend on our so-called intelligence community.

Last, I am reminded of something lawyers quite often say, however it is a chilling thought. "Were you lying to then or are you lying to me now."

Posted by: bill at December 4, 2007 9:50 AM

I think the most basic problem here is in accepting that WAR (what's it good for?) is a superstitious/divinely sanctioned resolution to whether or not our land is your land or my land based on which prophet you must believe in order for y ou parents to approve, and whether billions of dollars every year spent on one side's ultimate triumph over the other can be justified without discussing how oil and the access it provides to global domination is the larger force hiding behind the racism, and hate.... In "Borat," there is a clever scene in which "Borat" gets himself introduced as a visiting country western singer in a country western bar and whips up the country western crowd into a hand clapping, foot stomping frenzy with, "Throw The Jew Down The well," without their knowing the actor playing a Muslim is himself a Jew. The silly expressions of joy and eager participation on the faces of the crowd says it all. There is one born every minute and Olmert/Bushco has the number burned into his/her forehead! We DID Start The FIRE! Why do we pronounce as evil anyone struggling to stand up to our crap? There are other ways, peaceful ways through this, but not for adolescent males of all ages who continue to need to snap each other with wet towels in order to establish identity in a pecking order.

Posted by: Ed at December 5, 2007 2:50 AM

"May the conscience and the common sense of the peoples be awakened, so that we may reach a new stage in the life of nations, where people will look back on war as an incomprehensible aberration of their forefathers! "

Posted by: Albert Einstein at December 5, 2007 2:32 PM

2005 IC Estimate	2007 National Intelligence Estimate
Assess with high confidence that Iran currently is determined to develop nuclear weapons despite its international obligations and international pressure, but we do not assess that Iran is immovable.	Judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program. Judge with high confidence that the halt lasted at least several years. (DOE and the NIC have moderate confidence that the halt to those activities represents a halt to Iran's entire nuclear weapons program.) Assess with moderate confidence Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007, but we do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons. Judge with high confidence that the halt was directed primarily in response to increasing international scrutiny and pressure resulting from exposure of Iran’s previously undeclared nuclear work. Assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons.
We have moderate confidence in projecting when Iran is likely to make a nuclear weapon; we assess that it is unlikely before early-to-mid next decade.	We judge with moderate confidence that the earliest possible date Iran would be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium (HEU) for a weapon is late 2009, but that this is very unlikely. We judge with moderate confidence Iran probably would be technically capable of producing enough HEU for a weapon sometime during the 2010-2015 time frame. (INR judges that Iran is unlikely to achieve this capability before 2013 because of foreseeable technical and programmatic problems.)
Iran could produce enough fissile material for a weapon by the end of this decade if it were to make more rapid and successful progress than we have seen to date.	We judge with moderate confidence that the earliest possible date Iran would be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium (HEU) for a weapon is late 2009, but that this is very unlikely.